Dawson's Creek: Miami OC's Offensive Flood Headed for Raymond James
47.0 Coverage Grade CB in Crosshairs
The Miami Hurricanes' passing game has been a hot topic this season, with fans and analysts alike dissecting every catch, drop, and block. Let's dive into the numbers and paint a clearer picture of who's making waves in the 'Canes' receiving corps.
The Target Titans
Sam Brown: The Enigma (19 targets, 12 receptions) Our leading target-getter is a man of contrasts. While he tops the charts in targets, his 63.2% catch rate is the lowest among key receivers. He has one drop against Florida and two against Ball State. But don't let that fool you – Brown's impact goes beyond the stat sheet.
Xavier Restrepo: Mr. Reliable (18 targets, 14 receptions) Just a whisker behind in targets, Restrepo boasts a stellar 77.8% catch rate. He's not just catching; he's producing, leading the pack with 262 yards and 4 touchdowns.
Isaiah Horton & Jacoby George: The Twin Terrors (15 targets, 11 receptions each) These two mirror each other's production, but with a twist. Horton has racked up 170 yards without finding the end zone, while George has turned his 162 yards into 2 touchdowns.
Tight End Triumph
Elijah Arroyo & Elija Lofton Double the Name, Double the Game
Arroyo: 7 targets, 7 receptions, 159 yards, 2 TDs
Lofton: 7 targets, 6 receptions, 92 yards, 1 TD
Their near-perfect catch rates + scoring ability and ability after the catch make them crucial red zone threats.
The Backfield Bonus
Don't sleep on Chris Johnson Jr. out of the backfield. With 5 receptions on 5 targets for 65 yards and 2 TDs, he's been a nice wrinkle for Miami’s passing offense. He is lighting quick out of the backfield and has showed reliable hands so far this season.
Yards After Catch (YAC) Attack
Xavier Restrepo: 117 YAC (8.4 YAC/REC)
Jacoby George: 95 YAC (8.6 YAC/REC)
Sam Brown: 64 YAC (5.3 YAC/REC)
Isaiah Horton: 41 YAC (3.7 YAC/REC)
These numbers show who's dangerous with the ball in their hands. Restrepo and George are turning short passes into big gains much like they did in 2023. Ward has been excellent at doing the little things and putting the ball in optimal spaces for the WR to work with after the play. Take a look at this play for instance: excellent accuracy here, just pinpointing the ball on Brown's upfield shoulder, allowing him to use his momentum after the catch and gain YAC. I know it's a drop, but I just wanted to highlight the supreme ball placement by Ward here & how effective he is even in the tiniest details.
Perimeter Blocking: The Unsung Skill
While catches grab headlines, blocking wins games. Sam Brown leads the charge with a 78.6 run-blocking grade, ranking 12th among P4 WRs. Not far behind is Ny Carr with a 78.0 grade, proving that Miami's receivers aren't afraid to get their hands dirty. This is adjusted for power four receivers with at least 20 snaps.
Miami's Reliable Tight End Duo
Arroyo and Lofton have proven to be solid contributors to Miami's passing game. Arroyo has caught all 7 of his targets for 159 yards and 2 TDs. Lofton has been nearly as consistent, securing 6 of 7 targets for 92 yards and a score. Neither has recorded a drop this season.
Both tight ends show the ability to gain yards after the catch and have been effective in the red zone. Their blocking skills add value to the offense especially out of 11 and 12 personnel. One of the reasons Miami can do several things from this formation is the versatility of the tight end room.
With 251 combined yards and 3 TDs on 13 receptions, Arroyo and Lofton demonstrate good efficiency. As reliable targets, they provide quarterback Cam Ward with dependable options in the passing game. Their consistent performance has been a positive factor for Miami's offense this season. A stark difference from last season, where a Miami tight end only scored one time all season (Riley Williams Vs. Georgia Tech). Miami TEs were also only targeted 29 times during the 2023 season. They have been targeted 18 times already this year through three games and have accounted for 4 touchdowns. McCormick added one against Florida in week one.
While catches and yards often grab the headlines, a tight end's ability to block can be just as crucial to an offense's success. Let's break down how Miami's tight ends grade out in this less glamorous but equally important aspect of their role:
Cam McCormick:
Run blocking grade: 73.7
Pass blocking grade: 70.6
33 total blocking snaps, with 26 in run blocking
Highest overall blocking grade among TEs
Elija Lofton:
Run blocking grade: 66.0
Pass blocking grade: 65.4
30 total blocking snaps, with 29 in run blocking
Solid all-around blocker
Elijah Arroyo:
Run blocking grade: 52.7
Pass blocking grade: 62.4
36 total blocking snaps, with 29 in run blocking
Better in pass protection than run blocking
Riley Williams:
Run blocking grade: 54.8
Pass blocking grade: 29.9
29 total blocking snaps, with 25 in run blocking
Jackson Carver and Owen Ruskavich:
Limited snaps (5 and 10 respectively)
Overall, McCormick stands out as the best blocking tight end, excelling in both run and pass blocking. Lofton and Arroyo provide solid blocking support, while Williams may need improvement in pass protection. The tight ends as a group are far more involved in run blocking than pass protection as shown in snap counts. Even when in tight, tight-end heavy personnel.
The Bottom Line
Through three games, Miami's receiving corps is a diverse group of playmakers. From Restrepo's all-around excellence in the slot to Brown's blocking prowess, each player brings something unique to the table. The tight ends are proving to be reliable options, while the backfield provides an extra dimension to the passing game with quick, high-percentage passes meant to get the ball in space.
This will be the Hurricanes' toughest test yet since their week one matchup in Gainesville.
Here is a look at USF's defensive backfield and how I predict they will match up against the Hurricanes' receivers.
1. Tavin Ward (#D02, S, 160 snaps):
Ward leads the secondary in snaps and shows versatility with 51 snaps in the box, 88 at free safety, and 17 in the slot. His coverage grade of 54.9 is shaky, allowing 45 yards on 4 receptions. Ward's tackling is sub par with 1 missed tackle out of 5 attempts. He'll likely be responsible for deep coverage against Miami's outside receivers and could match up with tight ends in certain packages.
2. De'Shawn Rucker (#D22, CB, 150 snaps):
Rucker is primarily a boundary corner with 119 snaps at corner, but also has 23 snaps in the box and 5 in the slot. His 75.0 coverage grade is strong, allowing 6 receptions on 12 targets for 41 yards. Rucker's tackling is reliable with just 2 misses on 16 attempts. He'll likely be tasked with covering Miami's top outside receiver, possibly Isaiah Horton or Sam Brown.
3. Brent Austin (#D20, CB, 149 snaps):
Austin is another boundary specialist with 139 snaps at corner and 5 in the slot. His 68.3 coverage grade is good for this group, allowing 5 receptions on 11 targets for 102 yards. Austin has missed 3 of his 10 tackle attempts, which could be a concern against Miami's shifty receivers.
4. Tawfiq Byard (#D12, S, 119 snaps):
Byard splits time between the box (66 snaps) and free safety (30 snaps). His 53.9 coverage grade suggests he might be more effective in run support. He's allowed 4 receptions on 4 targets for 36 yards. Byard's tackling is solid with just 1 miss out of 10 attempts. He could be key in containing Miami's running game and short passing attack.
5. Kajuan Banks (#D13, CB, 115 snaps):
Banks primarily plays corner (104 snaps) with some snaps in the box (10). His 47.0 coverage grade is the lowest among the starters, allowing 4 receptions on 7 targets for 72 yards. However, his tackling is perfect with no misses on 6 attempts.
Shannon Dawson, Miami's offensive coordinator, has the tools and scheme to dissect USF's secondary with surgical precision. His air raid concept, blended with power run elements out of 12 and 11 personnel, is tailor-made to exploit the vulnerabilities in USF's defensive backfield.
Dawson will likely zero in on Xavier Restrepo as his primary weapon. Restrepo's elite slot skills (18 receptions, 262 yards, 8.4 YAC/REC) are a nightmare matchup for USF's safeties, especially Tawfiq Byard when he creeps into the box. Expect Dawson to use pre-snap motion with Restrepo to force USF into revealing their coverage and create mismatches.
On the outside, Dawson has the perfect deep threats in Isaiah Horton and Sam Brown to stress USF's cornerbacks. De'Shawn Rucker may have a solid 75.0 coverage grade, but Brent Austin's 68.3 grade is ripe for exploitation. Dawson will undoubtedly dial up some deep shots to Horton (11 receptions, 170 yards) to test Austin's coverage skills and potentially draw some defensive pass-interference calls.
The tight end duo of Elijah Arroyo and Elija Lofton (combined 13 receptions, 251 yards) gives Dawson lethal weapons in 12 personnel packages. These tight ends will create mismatches against USF's linebackers and safeties, especially when Byard is pulled up for run support. Expect some crafty play-action passes targeting these tight ends in the seams.
Jacoby George (162 yards, 2 TDs, 8.6 YAC/REC) will be Dawson's Swiss Army knife, lining up both inside and outside to probe USF's coverage weaknesses. His ability to gain yards after catch makes him a prime target for quick passes designed to counteract USF's pass rush.
Dawson will surely look to isolate Kajuan Banks (47.0 coverage grade) which is hilariously low, but still higher than Matt Grothe's BAC at a Tampa house party circa 2007. Banks covers mostly in the slot; I expect him to struggle to cover one of the best slot guys in the country Xavier Restrepo. Dawson will use Miami's speed merchants to exploit this clear weak link in USF's secondary.
USF's Top Defenders Struggle with Fundamentals
USF's top defenders struggle significantly with tackling efficiency. Mac Harris, the top-ranked defender, has a concerning missed tackle rate of 25.0%, with 7 missed tackles out of 28 total tackle attempts. This high rate of missed tackles could be a major liability against Miami's elusive receivers and running backs.
Jamie Pettway, the second-ranked defender, doesn't fare much better with 7 missed tackles and a missed tackle rate of 30.4%.
If Miami at any point gets into trouble this game, I expect to see Dawson open up the playbook. I don't expect that happening though, especially if we continue to see Ward play the most unshakeable football I've ever seen at his position at the college level.
I think Ward will continue to be the X-Factor this game just like he has been every game. He has yet to play a full 60-minute game this season and leads the FBS in passing TDs with 11.
I don’t even think we’ve seen Ward have to take over a game yet, which he’s entirely capable of. He’s been about as efficient as you can be at spreading the ball out and is the reason I think the Canes will come up huge against USF.
Canes - 45
Matt Grothe U - 14